FROM THE DESK OF... Bill Oppenheim Thoroughbred Daily News

THREE-YEAR-OLDS IN FEBRUARY

Hopefully Saturday's GI Fountain of Youth and Sunday's GIII Risen Star (provided Repent runs and wins) will help start to separate the men from the boys as this year's crop of North American three-year-olds steps up a gear on the road to Louisville. They need to.

So far there have been 8 1/2-furlong, then seven-furlong prep races, in both Florida and California, and so far Came Home's (Gone West, 2.81 APEX A Rating) four-length win in Santa Anita's seven-furlong GII San Vicente S. is the only one to have set pulses racing.

Came Home recorded a Beyer 109 in the San Vicente, but you'd have to be wildly optimistic to imagine he will stay the 10 furlongs at Churchill Downs. His dam was a crack sprinter, after all.

The Classic season kicked off with the GIII Holy Bull at Gulfstream and the GII Santa Catalina at Santa Anita, both at 8 1/2 furlongs, on Jan. 19. In the Holy Bull, the tough little Notebook (2.41) colt, Booklet, held off the GIII Iroqouis S. winner Harlan's Holiday (by the late lamented Harlan, 2.02), but the time equated to a Beyer figure of just 101. At Santa Anita, the Bobby Frankel- trained Skywalker (1.61) colt Labamta Babe ran 104 in slamming the slow-starting Breeders' Cup Juvenile third and Hollywood Futurity winner Siphonic, who of course is from Siphon's first crop. Labamta Babe has subsequently been injured and is out of the Triple Crown picture.

Two weekends later, and two weekends ago, two seven-furlong Grade II races were run--the Hutcheson at Gulfstream and the San Vicente. As is most likely the case with Came Home, these races are usually won nowadays by horses who might get nine furlongs (but usually not, not to mention 10 furlongs), no matter how impressive they are at seven. Came Home was impressive; the Hutcheson winner, Showmeitall, by the previously unheralded (unheard of, more like) Fappiano horse, All Gone, was less so. He led gate to wire, but his Beyer number was only 94. So the division looks wide open right now. Johannesburg's Breeders' Cup form still looks good, in that several of those behind him have come back and won well, but his Beyer number was only a 99, though he ran correspondingly much better figures when winning over six furlongs in Europe. BC Juvenile runner-up Repent (Louis Quatorze) came right back to win the GII Kentucky Jockey Club, but again the figure wasn't very high, nor was BC Juvenile also-ran Saarland's when he won the GII Remsen. So we await further clues this weekend with interest.

Meanwhile, Across the Pond...

What they call ‘proper racing,' meaning, I have come to learn, jumping. You may find it hard to believe if you're sitting in the warm sun just now, but it has been raining for weeks in Britain and Ireland, and the ground is very heavy right now. Conditions were very testing at Newbury (in England on Saturday) and Leopardstown (near Dublin on Sunday) for their key weekend meets, just five weeks now from the Cheltenham Festival, the Royal Ascot (lose the morning suits) of jump racing. One cautionary note is that Cheltenham is now a very quick-draining track, and often the ground is good, or even faster. Soft-ground form, which is what we're getting now, is often totally irrelevant by the time they get to Cheltenham.

British and Irish jump racing takes place over hurdles (smaller) and fences (bigger), with a few 'bumpers' (flat races for jumps-bred horses), mainly at distances between two miles (Champion Hurdle) and 3 1/4-miles (Cheltenham Gold Cup). The Grand National, over 4 1/2 miles, is an anomaly.

Without any question the greatest hurdler I have ever seen, live or Memorex, is J.P. McManus' Istabraq, a three-quarter brother (by Sadler's Wells) to Epsom Derby winner Secreto (by Northern Dancer), and three-time winner of the Champion Hurdle (1998, 1999, 2000--no Cheltenham, due to foot-and-mouth, last year).

Istabraq is still the favorite to win his fourth, but he's now 10, and the Pretenders are snapping at his heels, at least in the betting markets. One of the three main pretenders, Sue Magnier's Ned Kelly, is actually 'jumps-bred' (he's by current leading jumps sire Be My Native, by Our Native, by Exclusive Native, by Raise a Native), but the other two main pretenders, like many hurdlers especially, are straight off the flat: Valiramix (by Linamix), and Landing Light (by In the Wings).

There were two heavy-ground Cheltenham Gold Cup trials last weekend, won by Lady Lloyd-Webber's Bacchanal (by Bob Back, a 10-furlong Group 1 winner by Roberto) and Alexander Banquet (by Glacial Storm, by Arctic Tern). They are two of seven or eight horses quoted under 12-1 in the Gold Cup betting, headed by 2000 winner Looks Like Trouble. He is by Zaffaran, by the way, a SW half brother (by Assert) to none other than Shareef Dancer. Other leading contenders are by Un Desperado (son of Top Ville), Arazi, and Shernazar.

Talk about separating the men from the boys. The Cheltenham Gold Cup--that's 3 1/4 miles, with an uphill finish, jumping about 20 fences along the way. It looks like being a vintage meet, and the Gold Cup is the showpiece of the last of the meet's three days, Thursday, Mar. 14. That really could be one of the great races we'll ever see. And you thought the GI Florida Derby was the week's most important race.

Just one small dash of number-crunching this week; it's to do with stallions who were sold to Japan. In the early 1990s, when the American and European markets were mired in recession, the Japanese bought big. They dominated the markets in those years, buying yearlings like A.P. Indy and stallions like Sunday Silence. Since 1995 their purchases have leveled off, but even so most of the Japanese sires with current APEX ratings came from Europe or America, either to begin their stud careers, or after they had already been at stud. About 40 of them had stood elsewhere, and a few of those have already come back. You have to keep in mind that the money in Japan is very heavily weighted towards older horses. Most Japanese stallions' age ratings improve dramatically at four and five. But, with that in mind, here are a few numbers to chew over (covering racing 1995-2001).

GENEROUS

In Japan (oldest 4yos of 2001): 147 ‘Runners,' No A Runners - 0.00 A Index

In Europe, from previous crops: 334 Runners, 22 A Runners - 3.29 A Index

He is now back in Europe, at Plantation Stud (GB)

GROOM DANCER

In Japan: 286 Runners, 3 A Runners - 0.52 A Index

In Europe (French crops): 349 Runners, 10 A Runners - 1.43 A Index

He is now back in Europe, at Cheveley Park Stud (GB)

SOVIET STAR

In Japan (oldest 5yos+): 149 Runners, No A Runners - 0.00 A Index

In Europe: 281 Runners, 12 A Runners - 2.14 A Index

He is now back in Europe, at Ballylinch Stud (Ire)

AFLEET

In Japan (oldest 5yos+): 493 Runners, 9 A Runners - 0.91 A Index

In NA, from previous crops: 695 Runners, 39 A Runners - 2.81 A Index

FORTY NINER

In Japan (oldest 4yos): 222 Runners, 4 A Runners - 0.90 A Index

In NA: 435 Runners, 33 A Runners - 3.79 A Index

JOLIE'S HALO

In Japan (oldest 3yos?): 118 Runners, 1 A Runner - 0.42 A Index

In NA: 363 Runners, 17 A Runners - 2.24 A Index

MINING

In Japan (oldest 4yos?): 106 Runners, 1 A Runner - 0.47 A Index

In NA: 594 Runners, 20 A Runners - 1.68 A Index

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