Oppenheim: October 1: Who's The Sire?

Tattersalls' October 1 Yearling Sale: it really is the best yearling sale in the world. This week, 386 yearlings (70.2% of the 550 originally catalogued) grossed 88,038,000 guineas (£92,439,900, or about $117 million at today's rates), for an average of 228,078 gns (£239,482, or about $304k), with a median of 130,000gns (£136,500/$173,355). The number of yearlings sold was up 3% from last year; the gross was up 6%; and the average was up 2.5%, but the median was down 13% from the 2015 (and 2014) median of 150,000gns. That is the tipoff. Of course, it all converts to a lot less (20% less) in US$ dollars, but that's Brexit for you.

In their own currency, the sale was marginally up over last year, but as is often the case, it was really a tale of two sales, looked at from two different points of view: the buyers, and the sires. The buyers: probably 55 million gns (about 63% of the gross) was spent on behalf of buyers from Dubai, Qatar, or Coolmore, in partnership with South Africa's Mayfair Speculators' Markus Jooste. That 55-million guinea figure is an estimate primarily because not all Al Shaqab purchases necessarily said 'for Al Shaqab' on the scoresheet. What is not an estimate, what is exact, are these numbers: 41 yearlings (11% of those sold) by Dubawi, Frankel, and Galileo grossed 31,690,000 gns (36% of the gross), and averaged 772,926gns (that's a touch over $1,030,000 at today's much-reduced conversion rates). The other 345 yearlings (89% of those sold) by all other sires grossed 56,348,000gns (64% of the gross), for an average of 163,327gns (about $217,800). That's the stark reality: Dubawi (who actually averaged about $1.3 million), Frankel, and Galileo combined averaged a tick over $1 million; everybody else averaged $217,800.

Which is where the median 'tipoff' comes in. Sure, you got paid, and handsomely, if you had the right horse; but otherwise, it was a struggle. A lot of people, even those with money in the business, don't seem to realize that breeders, like racehorse owners, can only survive and prosper by having a 'home run' horse. For those, demand is very strong: the three top European commercial sires illustrate that, in the same way that, in Keeneland September Book 1, 28 yearlings by Tapit averaged $662,857, and 18 yearlings by War Front averaged $659,167, with a yawning gap back to all other sires. The dramatic 20% crash in sterling in the last year makes direct comparisons tricky, but we feel pretty confident in saying Dubawi, Frankel, Galileo, Tapit, and War Front are very much the top five 'elite' North American and European commercial sires–which of course reflects their progeny's racetrack performance.

The Euro's big fall against the dollar (and, at the time, sterling) came through 2014 into early 2015, whereas sterling's big fall against the dollar has been in the last 12 months; the combination of these fluctuations means that comparing European sires' commercial (auction) averages over the last couple of years, converted to dollars, results in some wild fluctuations. However, if we look at the commercial performance of, for example, European first-year yearling sires, just in October 1 (much the same way we would look at American sires' averages just in Keeneland September Book 1) does at least provide us with a like-to-like comparison.

The 2013 G1 Prix du Jockey-Club-French Derby winner Intello (Galileo), who stood at England's Cheveley Park Stud in 2014-2015 but transferred to France, to the Haras du Quesnay for the 2016 season, was the leading October 1 first-year sire (3+ sold), with 10 yearlings averaging 185,000gns. Coolmore's Camelot (Montjeu), winner of the 2012 G1 English 2000 Guineas and English and Irish Derbies, had 17 average 171,176gns, while the same firm's Declaration of War (War Front), from his sole Irish crop before his transfer to Kentucky, had 11 average 157,273gns. Society Rock, a dual Group 1-winning sprinter by Rock of Gibraltar who stood at Ireland's Tally-Ho Stud, but died earlier this year, had four yearlings average 145,000gns, while Darley Kildangan's Dawn Approach (New Approach), unbeaten (in six starts) champion 2-year-old in 2012 and winner of the G1 English 2000 Guineas and St. James's Palace S. at three, had 13 Book 1 yearlings average 124,923gns. Al Kazeem (Dubawi), a winner of four Group 1 races at around 10 furlongs both before and after he was returned to training after proving sub-fertile, had three yearlings sell for an average of 123,333gns.

Contact Bill Oppenheim at [email protected] (cc [email protected]).