Oppenheim: Making (Into) Mischief

Over $300-million worth of horses have been sold in Kentucky, Ireland, and England in the last 2 1/2 weeks, and we're not done yet. But before talking about the sales I'd like to take a paragraph or two to highlight what I consider to be a quite remarkable achievement by Spendthrift's sire Into Mischief, which is that he has reached the top spot as the #1 sire of 2-year-olds in North America by progeny earnings in 2016 (click here).

From at least the middle of 2013, when we first compiled APEX ratings for sires with their first foals 2010, it was clear Into Mischief was way out of the ordinary, as his initial A Runner Index at that time was an astronomical 5.45. By the end of 2013 his A Runner Index was 5.80, well ahead of all other F2010 sires. At the end of 2014 his A Runner Index was 4.51, and by the end of 2015, when he first had enough year-starters to be rated among all APEX sires rather than just his own F2010 sire group, he ranked as the #2 North American/European APEX sire, with an A Runner Index of 4.07, behind only Galileo (4.09), with a certain War Front (3.89) in third. Yes, he only had a third the number of year-starters as War Front, and actually just over a tenth the number of year-starters as Galileo; nonetheless, to even get a mention in the same context as those two–very impressive.

Now it gets a lot tougher statistically for Into Mischief. He had just 138 named foals in his first four crops, and 133 named 2-year-olds of 2016. Of course this is great because he finally had a crop of sufficient size to evaluate. But 2-year-olds only earn 40% of the money as older horses, so a sire whose 2-year-olds comprise nearly half his total foals of racing age is going to be at a big statistical disadvantage against the likes of a sire like War Front, whose 2-year-olds comprise only about 15% of his total foals. So Into Mischief's index figures inevitably are going to fall. But he is keeping his name in the news anyway, because, as of last weekend, when he had the one-two in a 2-year-old stakes in Canada and the third in the $1-million

GIII Delta Downs Jackpot, he wrested the lead among North American 2-Year-Old Sires from War Front.

Going into Thanksgiving Day weekend, Into Mischief showed yesterday as having 81 2-year-old starters this year, for 28 2-year-old winners, so he leads North American sires of 2-year-olds by number of winners as well as by money earned. Only his sire, Harlan's Holiday, has more 2-year-old starters so far this year (82). There are five weeks of the year remaining, and Into Mischief isn't guaranteed to hold on to the title, but the very fact he's made it to this point with his first big crop of 2-year-olds–that's a huge statement, come what may.

Spendthrift initially announced Into Mischief at $60,000 for 2017, then quickly bumped it up to $75,000–no matter, because he was probably the first horse to be declared Book Full for 2017. For most people, the next chance to get into Into Mischief will be at the 2-year-old sales. But there is another beneficiary of his success, or should be: Ashford's Shanghai Bobby, who was an unbeaten champion 2-year-old by Harlan's Holiday, sire of Into Mischief and now revealed as a serious influence for 2-year-old precocity, speed, and class. The buyers liked Shanghai Bobby, whose first yearlings appeared at the yearling sales this year: he ran second on average to Claiborne's Orb among North American first-year sires of yearlings, with 64 sold (of 75 offered, a very high 85%) for an average of $115,804, and a median of $90,000, off his initial $20,000 stud fee. His fee had dropped to $15,000 the last two years, but Ashford has defied the trends by raising him to $25,000 for 2017. Given that it's more or less impossible to get into Into Mischief at this point, and that Shanghai Bobby was an even better 2-year-old by Harlan's Holiday, he is likely to be very popular even given his stud fee raise.

AT THE SALES: As noted, there have been over $300-million in sales since the beginning of the month: mixed sales at Fasig-Tipton ($54m), Keeneland ($215m), and Goffs (€40m), plus Monday's season-ending December Yearling Sale (4.3m guineas, or about $5.5m). What was very striking, as we noted last week, was that demand for mares (63.2% of those catalogued at Fasig plus Keeneland Books 1-4 were sold) seems considerably higher than the demand for weanlings (48.4%). At Goffs last week, even without the Wildenstein Dispersal mares, the two-day mare sale Friday and Saturday was up 31% in gross and 11% in average over 2015, with a clearance rate from the catalogue of 71.3%. Just as in Kentucky, it was harder to sell foals, as only 58% of those catalogued sold. The Kentucky Fasig plus Books 1-4 clearance rate was 15% higher for mares than for foals; taking out the Wildenstein Dispersal horses, the clearance rate at Goffs was 13% higher for mares than for foals. With demand strong, and with sterling still so low, it's hard to imagine next week's Tattersalls 'Mares Etc' sale will be anything but strong, and the same goes for Arqana the following week. Tattersalls' four-day Foal Sale kicks off today, so it will be very interesting to see whether they can better the 48% clearance rate in the better Kentucky books and the 58% clearance rate from the catalogue at Goffs.

The low clearance rate in Kentucky (not even considering Keeneland's Books 5-7) made it very clear weanling buyers were doing anything but throwing money at the wall; it was very selective. So it was clear the buyers approved of Three Chimneys' Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song), who led North American first-year sires of weanlings with 18 sold, of 24 offered, for an average of $128,444 and a median of $105,000, off his initial $30,000 stud fee. But Will Take Charge was expected to do well, and did. But the other horse who really impressed the buyers was Airdrie's Cairo Prince, from the first crop by Pioneerof the Nile (himself a grandson of Unbridled, by Empire Maker), who had 20 weanlings sell, of 24 offered, and grabbed second place by average among North American first-year sires of weanlings, with an average of $87,850, and a median of $80,000. This was off just a $10,000 stud fee, but as Bret Jones will readily admit, they underpriced him the first year, and he went to $15,000 for this year, and for 2017. His median is eight times his initial stud fee, which is an extremely high return; but even if you calculated it at what it should have been, that would still be 5.3 times the stud fee for a weanling median. That is very high.

In the last 15 years I've seen only four other stallions who started out this way, with weanlings which were so impressive they just demanded buyers take notice, and three out of the four (Cape Cross 2001, Montjeu 2002 [yes, he even took Coolmore by surprise], and Tapit 2006) went on to be major successes (the one who didn't? Colonel John 2010, so like everything else, this 'pointer' isn't correct all the time). But a 75% success rate means the next one who comes along is one-to-three to be a success, so if the market's right about Cairo Prince (and it usually is), he should be overrun with mares at $15,000 next year. One thing is for sure: he could not have made a more impressive start in the commercial market.

Contact Bill Oppenheim at [email protected] (cc [email protected]).