Op/Ed: First-Season Sire Predictions

The bloodstock business never fails to amaze. Despite so few new sires ultimately becoming commercial successes, it is remarkable to witness the untethered enthusiasm, excitement and speculation which greets each new batch of new and unproven stallions that retire to the breeding shed every year. Despite the relatively unattractive odds involved, the majority of players in the game dream of being on the right side of the next successful sire and are willing to back their judgement and support these unproven sires in the hope of striking gold.
Thus, with the first runners of the latest bunch of new sires about to hit the racecourse, now is as good a time as any to search for statistical hints as to what might prove to be the pick of the new sires based in Great Britain and Ireland.

One thing that must be said is that it is a competitive year for sires with their first runners in 2019. There are 17 stallions based in Great Britain and Ireland that have 75 or more 2-year-olds to represent them. For the sake of comparison, there were 14 such stallions in 2018, 10 in 2017, 13 in 2016 and eight in 2015. Also worth noting is that there is more depth in the upper end of the market than is often the case, with six individual stallions having covered their first crop at a published fee of €20,000 or higher.

The method used to assess the prospects of the first runners of various stallions is an interesting subject. As always in the bloodstock world, there will be no shortage of subjective opinion based on what observers have seen with their own eyes at the sales and on the gallops, but this piece will seek to make a statistics-based assessment. While statistics based on yearling sales results are far from cast iron given the potential for some of the results to not be quite as they seem, there is always plenty of interesting information to be extracted from the results.

The chosen method of assessment in this piece is to express the average and more significantly the median price achieved by a sire's progeny at the yearling sales in relation to their sire's nomination fee. This can give an idea of how they performed in the context of the expectation implied by their nomination fee. However, that methodology undoubtedly favours sires with lower nomination fees, so it is fairer to all to include a set figure to account for the costs up to the point of sale as a yearling.

As has been discussed in previous sales analysis pieces, what this figure should be is a subject of great debate given the differing circumstances of the horses that sell at yearling sales. Based on feedback from industry figures over the years, the number I have decided to use this year to best reflect an industry-wide average is 10,000gns.

It is also worth noting that when I converted the 2016 nomination fees of Irish-based stallions from Euro to Guineas for ease of comparison, I used the average exchange rate from October 1st 2016 to March 1st 2017 (87p to €1) in an effort to best reflect the cost to the breeder at the average time of payment.

With all that in mind, statistical analysis of this nature will never be fully reflective of the situation, but it can certainly help to cut through the bluster and give a good indication of how the market really received the first yearlings of these new sires.

So, what do the numbers say?

As can clearly be seen, Muhaarar (GB) (Shadwell) was the stand-out performer in this analysis. The best-ever son of Oasis Dream was in incredibly high demand when he retired to stud at a fee of £30,000 after his exceptional sprinting campaign as a 3-year-old that saw him win four Group 1 races. The commercial breeders that were fortunate enough to get a mare into him were very well rewarded at the yearling sales. Indeed, his 'median as a multiple of stud fee plus costs' figure is the highest recorded by any first-season sire since I started analysing them in this style.

There were many individual highlights amongst his yearling sale results. Shadwell bought five of his offspring themselves, including three of his five most expensive lots. These included the most expensive Muhaarar yearling sold thus far, a half-sister to the Group 1-winning Fairyland (Ire) that realised 925,000gns at Tattersalls October Book 1. They also signed for a colt out of Alexander Goldrun (Ire) that realised 500,000gns and a half-brother to Washington DC (Ire) for 350,000gns at the same sale, as well as a filly out of Group 1-placed Beach Bunny (Ire) that cost €500,000 at the Goffs Orby Sale.

Other notable members of his first crop that sold at Tattersalls October Book 1 are a half-sister to Breton Rock (Ire) that was bought by Blandford Bloodstock for 500,000gns and a half-sister to Libranno (GB) that cost Canary Bloodstock 425,000gns. With eight other yearlings being sold for €250,000 or more, it really was a sensational set of results for a sire that has stood for no more than £30,000 in all of his seasons at stud to date.

With Muhaarar having been precocious enough to make a winning debut in May of his own 2-year-old season, we are unlikely to have to wait too long to see the first of his offspring on the track. With him having over 100 2-year-olds to represent him this year, he is without doubt a worthy favourite for the title of champion first-season sire.

The leader of the chasing pack is Golden Horn (GB) (Dalham Hall), who was the most expensive first-season sire of this group with a covering fee of £60,000. While being a son of Cape Cross (Ire) that stayed well enough to win the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe as a 3-year-old suggests that his progeny are likely to take time to mature, the market greeted his first yearlings with more than enough enthusiasm to suggest they will be worth the wait.

A colt out of the listed winner Astonishing (Ire) that was bought for 550,000gns by BBA Ireland at Tattersalls October Book 1 was the pick of his sale results. In total, he had no fewer than 14 yearlings that changed hands for €200,000 or more.

While there wasn't a stand-out performer amongst the sires that stood at the lower half of the nomination fee table, Brazen Beau (Aus) (Dalham Hall), Hot Streak (Ire) (Tweenhills) and Gutaifan (Ire) (Yeomanstown) all emerged from the analysis with positive returns. It is also worth noting that while Gutaifan is lower down the table than those other two sires, the fact that he achieved his numbers from more than double the number of yearlings sold than them gives his figures more solidity.

Click table to enlarge.