Kentucky Sires: Where's the Value

Value, like beauty, is in the eye of the beholder; subjective, not objective. In the strange world of bloodstock, however, it sometimes seems as though you can't even be subjective.

Because you can't look at Stallion A and Stallion B, both standing for $20,000, and decide that Stallion A is better value simply because you think he is more likely to sire a good racehorse. If the sales averages of Stallion B are superior–and who can say how those fires start?–then you know more and better mares will follow; and that Stallion A, unless he gets lucky on the track, will be standing for $5,000 in five years' time. So how can he be better value at $20,000?

Of course, the nature of the beast is such that Stallion B may also be standing at $5,000 in five years anyway! New sires, very often, never again stand at a higher fee than the one they start with. If their farms have pitched them at the right level, true, many can enjoy a bull run through their first weanlings and yearlings. After that everyone holds their breath–and typically, a few months later, their noses.

Let people down with your first crop or two, and it's a long way back. So we tend to end up with a small, stratospheric sector of sires who ride the bumps and come out the other side; a gaudy, annual carousel of fresh-in-the-memory rookies; and a yawning abyss in between.

To a degree, such an unforgiving market means that nearly every stallion has to represent some kind of “value”–or he will soon be out of business. So while I'm going to pick a handful of sires for consideration, they are offered with all due humility. Subjectively, some of them might deserve a second look. But several, for sure, already have a cold tide lapping round their ankles.

Equally, there is no point adding an extra klaxon to the bandwagons making their noisy way through all the obvious indices. In the interests of fairness, we'll identify some of these in a round-up of each sector–and then break away, with your indulgence, for a few maverick detours. We'll also canvass some industry insiders for their own picks.

Sires with First Covers in 2018

As one seasoned judge remarked to me at Keeneland earlier this month: “If anyone asks me whether a new sire is going to make it, I always say no-because the sad reality is that 95% of them won't.”

As such, with value strictly in mind, it might be best to sail straight past all those untested sires so incorrigibly beloved by the market. That said, by historic standards you could argue that both the big guns who are about to extend their track rivalry have been introduced at a relatively temperate rate, Arrogate (Unbridled's Song) (Juddmonte, $75,000) paying a sensible price for his post-Dubai decline and Gun Runner (Three Chimneys, $70,000) impossible not to like as, apart from everything else, a son of a Grade II-winning half-sister to poor Saint Liam (Saint Ballado).

Likewise enhancing the current hegemony of the Fappiano line, another champion juvenile finds himself in their customary retirement home in Classic Empire (Pioneerof The Nile) (Ashford, $35,000) alongside one of his glitzier contemporaries in Practical Joke (Into Mischief) (Ashford, $30,000).

But let's take a look at a couple with a bit more margin for error, at their opening fees:

KLIMT (Quality Road), Darby Dan, $10,000

There's been something of a stampede for this guy, evidently, as much through his sheer presence ($435,000 2-year-old) as his paper profile as a Grade I-winning 2-year-old by a sire surging out of reach in Quality Road. Klimt won the Del Mar Futurity by 4 1/4 lengths in a fast time, having graduated from the GII Best Pal S. But he was then given the slip by Gormley (Malibu Moon) on his two-turn debut, and rather derailed thereafter–albeit he did chase home West Coast (Flatter) in the GIII Los Alamitos Derby at three.

His stakes-placed dam is by a rising broodmare sire in Dixie Union out of a daughter of one of the greats in that sphere, Storm Cat; and his third dam is sister to tough-guy Breeders' Cup Classic winner Concern.

Klimt has joined the same outfit as 2016 champion freshman Dialed In (Mineshaft) and will benefit from the same expert presentation. It is not hard to see him revving up plenty of sharp and early types to keep breeders comfortable with a restrained opening fee. The right money, the right farm; could very well be the right horse.

TU BRUTUS (Scat Daddy), Crestwood, $5,000

A longshot, clearly, but pretty much a bet to nothing. True, the American market was only afforded a tantalising glimpse of the talent he had appeared to show in shallower waters in his Chilean homeland. Switched to dirt there, he ran up four wins at an aggregate 26 lengths and was imported by Gary Contessa. On his U.S. debut he launched a wild pace attack over 11f in the GIII Excelsior S., unable to repel a late runner but still notching an eye-watering Beyer of 118–and he then backed that up with a 109 when coasting by 11 lengths in the Flat Out S. at Belmont.

One way or another he could not kick on from there, in fact managing only two more starts, but he had hinted at freakish ability and perhaps his gusto might have been better deployed over shorter trips. Either way, it's fairly incredible that Scat Daddy has no other son at stud in Kentucky, given how urgent is the search for his heirs in Europe.

And the variegation of the tragic Ashford sire's own line is healthily reciprocated in Tu Brutus by a dam representing a potent strand of local blood: herself Grade I-placed, and already responsible for another of Scat Daddy's top shuttle sons in dual champion El Bromista (as well as for the dam of another champion juvenile). She is by Seeker's Reward (Gone West), just like the dam of a Scat Daddy migrant who did make it at GI level here in Dacita (Chi).

Deeper down you'll find, as sixth dam, the mother of Forli– whose son Forego reminds us of the virtue of occasionally importing some South American exotica to the U.S. gene pool. And just remember who's the Daddy.

Sires with First Weanlings in 2018

Naturally the same caveats as above apply to this group, headed on fees by two Jonabell buddies in Frosted (Tapit) (Darley, $50,000) and, seeking to emulate the flying start he gave his own sire, Nyquist (Uncle Mo) (Darley, $40,000). So far as you can read anything into the sale of their covered mates, so good; and you have to love Frosted's famous 123 Beyer being underwritten by a GII-winning Deputy Minister dam.

In contrast, dual Horse of the Year California Chrome (Taylor Made, $40,000) had a relatively blue-collar background–but Pulpit blood is in vogue, and then there's that wacky thing of his dam having two grandparents out of Numbered Account, so who knows?

There are plenty of others in their slipstream, of course, so here's just one against the field–on the basis that we only saw the tip of his iceberg and he had to be priced accordingly:

NOT THIS TIME (Giant's Causeway), Taylor Made, $15,000

The 2016 GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile made the superiority of the front two to the rest rather more obvious than their own relative merit, Classic Empire getting first run before Not This Time (Giant's Causeway) closed to a neck, the pair seven clear of Grade I winner (and $30,000 freshman) Practical Joke (Into Mischief).

It was Not This Time who clocked the higher numbers: the highest Beyer for any juvenile colt that year, and the top 2-year-old Ragozin, too. But it was the winner, of course, who gained divisional honors; and while you might question how far a rather frustrating Classic campaign advanced his status, Classic Empire has been able to retire at $35,000. Not This Time was deprived by injury of any opportunity to clarify their mutual standing at three, and found himself starting out at less than half that fee.

Perhaps the best 2-year-old by his sire of sires, Not This Time is out of a dam who has meanwhile launched another exciting (if pricier) young prospect in Liam's Map (Unbridled's Song). Moreover, Miss Macy Sue (Trippi), herself a tough winner of 11 races including at the Grade III level, is out of a mare inbred 2×3 to champion sprinter Ta Wee–who in turn shared her own dam with Dr Fager.

You just love to see a knot on the bottom line like Not This Time's third dam, Stem, who was by Damascus out of a daughter of Secretariat and Ta Wee. There is a lake of John Nerud blood here and that quality is physically apparent in both Liam's Map, himself an $800,000 yearling, and the very handsome Not This Time.

Dale Romans described Not This Time as the most talented horse he has trained. He won his maiden by 10 lengths, and the GIII Iroquois S. by very nearly as far, beating subsequent Kentucky Derby runner-up Lookin At Lee (Lookin At Lucky). With 145 partners in his first season, you have to ask yourself: if Not This Time, when?

Sires with First Yearlings in 2018

Still shadow-boxing with these guys, albeit their pack leader American Pharoah (Pioneerof The Nile) (Ashford, private) has by all accounts subsided to a highly palatable fee after a somewhat ambitious launch at $200,000. The weanlings he sold (13 of 18) did the necessary at an average $467,307; but it's a mighty attractive posse in behind, too, a good dozen recording medians at healthy multiples of their covering fee.

Honor Code (A.P. Indy) (Lane's End, $40,000) has a mouth-watering pedigree, physique and track profile and his sold weanlings were touching a $200,000 average. His neighbour Liam's Map (Unbridled's Song) (Lane's End, $25,000)–whose royal blood is charted in relation to Not This Time above–weighed in next on $143,076, while sires who threw penthouse numbers from basement fees include Bayern (Offlee Wild) (Hill 'n' Dale, $15,000), hitting six figures, and Lea (First Samurai) (Claiborne, $7,500).

The latter has been made hard to ignore with a cut from $12,500 after averaging $88,294 off his first covers, not least with 17 out of 20 changing hands. The farm was responding to a book of just 46 last year, down from 100, but the lift will be heading up again now.

Another to take a very seductive cut after catching attention with his first weanlings is Daredevil (More Than Ready) (WinStar, $7,500), who has a very solid pedigree and melted the stopwatch in his GI Champagne S. Pity he burned so bright so briefly, but he seems bound to get fast horses and looks like real value now.

Tapiture (Tapit) (Darby Dan, $7,500) also worked his passage very auspiciously, and likewise the beautifully bred turf miler Karakontie (Jpn) (Bernstein) (Gainesway, $10,000). But here are three rolls of the dice with different things in their favour:

SUMMER FRONT (War Front), Airdrie, $10,000

Competition is increasing among sons of War Front as value alternatives to the $250,000 heavyweight and here is one with a great deal going for him. In fact he might yet gain the attention of imaginative European breeders, with a strong turf profile.

Those Euros alarmed by one or two glaring failures to train on, among War Front's star juveniles over there, will be comforted to know that Summer Front was not only an undefeated stakes winner at two but was also still placing (for a fifth time) at Grade I level at age six. And that hardiness was harnessed to a real flair, extending from a trademark turn of foot to a lovely physique.

You can tell something of the latter from his $475,000 2-year-old tag, in only War Front's second crop, when his sire was himself still operating at this kind of level. True, he came with a page recently adorned by a Grade I success for his half-sister, Hollywood Starlet S winner Laragh (Tapit). (Their dam, moreover, is a half-sister to another Grade I-winning juvenile in Siphonic (Siphon {Brz})). But you can glean something of how he is transferring that physical appeal from a debut weanling average of $92,090, placing him sixth among his fellow rookies – and cheapest of the top 10. The sun's coming out.

TONALIST (Tapit), Lane's End, $20,000

An exciting young roster at Lane's End has taken up the full trifecta from the 2015 Whitney, where Tonalist (Tapit) filled the podium behind Honor Code and Liam's Map. In embarking on their new careers, likewise, Tonalist is coming off third best for now–but the farm has responded quickly, slashing him from a $40,000 debut fee to $30,000 and now $20,000.

It is not as though an average of $86,294 for his debut weanlings represents any kind of disgrace, not least as he found new homes for 17 of 21–compared with 10 of 19 for Honor Code, for instance. And if Honor Code also beat him in the Met Mile, then Tonalist did manage to wrap up with a Grade I mile success of his own in the Cigar. Holding his own in these races is, of course, a terrific credit to a Belmont winner who also won two Jockey Club Gold Cups.

In terms of accomplishment, in fact, Tonalist is perhaps second only to Frosted among sons of Tapit. And that's before you throw his family into the mix: out of a half-sister to the dams of multiple Grade I winners Havre De Grace (Saint Liam) and Riskaverse (Dynaformer), all three in turn out of a daughter of the influential Buckpasser mare Toll Booth. The 1991 Broodmare of the Year produced seven stakes winners, headed by champion sprinter Plugged Nickle, and was herself out of the stellar Missy Baba–who also produced Grade I winner Sauce Boat, champion sire Raja Baba and, in Gay Missile, third dam of A.P. Indy and ancestress of many other top-class runners and sires.

Maybe some breeders can't bring themselves to support a Belmont winner who didn't win at two, but those who can see the bigger picture will see that everything else is in in place–including, by this stage, the price.

CARPE DIEM (Giant's Causeway), WinStar, $25,000

Himself the most expensive 2-year-old by Giant's Causeway ($1.6 million sale-topper), Carpe Diem has in turn made a strong start in the ring, shifting 19 of 25 weanlings in 2017 at an average $112,236. That placed him fourth among the freshmen but at a better clearance rate than the three above –a record entirely consistent with the vibe about his foals, and his own physique.

Carpe Diem lived up to his name on the track, showing the full range of his class despite a relatively short career: a debut winner at Saratoga over just 5 1/2f, he jumped straight into the deep end to win a Grade I by 6 1/4 lengths in the Breeders' Futurity before closing for second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He confirmed himself among the best of his generation in his Triple Crown preps, winning the GII Tampa Bay Derby by five on his reappearance and then the GI Blue Grass, only to disappoint in the Kentucky Derby–after which a career-ending injury transpired.

His dam, Rebridled Dreams (Unbridled's Song), had already produced a GI Futurity winner in J.B.'s Thunder (Thunder Gulch) while her daughter Farrell (Malibu Moon) has meanwhile embellished the page with four Grade II wins in 2016 and 2017. His maternal line proceeds into some long grass, the third dam being by the sunk-without-trace Aloma's Ruler (won the 1982 Preakness under 16-year-old Cowboy Jack Kaenel, who would also poignantly submerge), but somehow it's all functioning in both physique and performance.

Carpe Diem finds himself in a competitive intake, but 306 mares in his first two years will give him every chance of maintaining his early momentum. So, yep, seize the moment.

And the Judges Say…

CRAIG BANDOROFF

I have a share in Lea (First Samurai) (Claiborne, $7,500)–I always liked him, and then the way his babies sold this year was really good; they dropped his stud fee, and you always have horses in that sort of range that you have to use, so we're using him a bunch.

Among the new horses, I really like Battle of Midway (Smart Strike) (WinStar, $20,000) physically and we're using him a lot; and I really like Classic Empire (Pioneerof The Nile) (Ashford, $35,000) physically, too, so we're going to use him. Munnings (Speightstown) (Ashford, $25,000) is a horse one of our pedigree advisers has pushed a lot: we're thinking he could move up to the next level, so we're thinking he's good value. But I also think the two new big horses are both good value, Arrogate (Unbridled's Song) (Juddmonte, $75,000) and Gun Runner (Candy Ride {Arg}) (Three Chimneys, $70,000). Once upon a time you had to pay a lot more money to breed to horses of that caliber.