The TDN Top 12 to the Derby

Nyquist | Keeneland/Coady

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Bill Finley brings you his TDN Top 12 to the Kentucky Derby in a new feature, brought to you by WinStar.

1. NYQUIST (c, Uncle MoSeeking Gabrielle, by Forestry) O-Reddam Racing LLC. B-Summerhill Farm (Ky). T-Doug O'Neill Sales history: $400,000 2yo '15 FTFMAR; $230,000 yrl '14 KEESEP; $180,000 wnlg '13 KEENOV. Last Start: 1st, GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Oct. 31 Next Start: GII San Vicente S., SA, Feb. 15 Andrew Caulfield on Nyquist The champion proved his mettle in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, overcoming a wide trip and substantial ground loss to win comfortably. Because of his pedigree, some believe he will not be able to go the mile-and-a-quarter, but there's no evidence yet that the Uncle Mos can or cannot prosper in longer races. A clear and deserving number one on anyone's list. Florida Derby is major pre-Kentucky goal.

2. MOHAYMEN (c, TapitJustwhistledixie, by Dixie Union) O-Shadwell Stable. B-Clearsky Farm (Ky). T-Kiaran McLaughlin. Sales history: $2,200,000 yrl '14 KEESEP. Last Start: 1st, GII Remsen S., AQU, Nov. 28 Next Star: GII Holy Bull S., GP, Jan. 30 Andrew Caulfield on Mohaymen Everything about him cries out “serious Kentucky Derby contender.” He is impeccably bred, cost seven figures at the sales, is trained by an outstanding horseman in Kiaran McLaughlin and showed his ability to handle a route and two turns when winning the GII Remsen S. over subsequent GIII Jerome S. winner Flexibility (Bluegrass Cat). With him, you can check every box.

3. MOR SPIRIT (r, Eskendereya–Im a Dixie Girl, by Dixie Union) O-Michael Lund Petersen. B-Elkstone Group LLC (PA). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $650,000 2yo '15 FTFMAR; $85,000 yrl '14 FTKOCT. Last Start: 1st, GI Los Alamitos Futurity, LRC, Dec. 19 Next Start: GIII Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Feb. 6 Andrew Caulfield on Mor Spirit Bob Baffert doesn't have the next American Pharoah in his barn, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have the 2016 Kentucky Derby winner. It wasn't the best field for the GI Los Alamitos Futurity ever assembled last year, but the race has long been an important stepping stone to 3-year-old glory and Mor Spirit won comfortably. That Baffert is his trainer is 162469-PioneeroftheNile-half-TDNreason enough to believe he'll be a factor come Derby Day.

4. AIROFORCE (c, Colonel JohnChocolate Pop, by Cuvee) O-John Oxley. B-Stewart M. Madison (Ky). T-Mark Casse. Sales history: $350,000 2yo '15 OBSAPR; $20,000 yrl '14 FTKOCT. Last Start: 1st, GII KY Jockey Club S., CD, Nov. 28 Next Start: GIII Sam F. Davis S., TAM, Feb. 13 You can argue that he should be ahead of Mor Spirit in these rankings because he beat him head-to-head in the slop in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club, and you might not be wrong. That was a huge win for him as it proved he was far more than a grass horse after making his first three career starts on the turf. Still must prove himself on a fast main track, but that's a minor knock.

5. EXAGGERATOR (c, CurlinDawn Raid, by Vindication) O-Big Chief Racing. B-Joseph B. Murphy (Ky). T-Keith Desormeaux. Sales history: $110,000 yrl '14 KEESEP. Last Start: 1st, GIII Delta Downs Jackpot, DED, Nov. 21 Next Start: GII San Vicente S., SA, Feb. 15 He's a horse that might sneak up on some people because his biggest win came not in a Grade I event, but in the GIII Delta Downs Jackpot. But, after that race, trainer Keith Desormeaux made a huge statement when he said there was no doubt in his mind that this horse was better than stablemate Swipe (Birdstone), the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile runner-up. His fourth-place finish in the Juvenile is better than it looks as he had some traffic problems.

6. GREENPOINTCRUSADER (c, BernardiniAva Knowsthecode, by Cryptoclearance) O-St. Elias Stable, MeB Racing Stables LLC & Brooklyn Boyz Stable. B-Oakbrook Farm (Ky). T-Dominick Schettino. Sales history: $575,000 yrl '14 KEESEP. Last Start: 7th, GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Oct. 31 Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Champagne S., BEL, Oct. 3 Next Start: GII Holy Bull S., GP, Jan. 30 He didn't run well when seventh in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, where he had no obvious excuses, but that's no reason to give up on what appears to be a very talented colt. In his prior start, he overcame a world of trouble to win the GI Champagne S. at Belmont in what was arguably the best performance by any juvenile colt in 2015. Sometimes you just have to draw a line through a race and if you do just that with Greenpointcrusader you're left with an exceptional horse.

7. SWIPE (c, Birdstone–Avalanche Lily, by Grand Slam) O-Big Chief Racing LLC, James C. Justice & Billy R. Shelton. B-Lou Oppenheim (Ky). T-Keith Desormeaux. Sales history: $5,000 yrl '14 KEESEP. Last Start: 2nd, GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Oct. 31 Next Star: Undecided If nothing else, Swipe has already proven to be one of the great bargains in yearling sales history as he cost just $5,000 and has already earned $608,330. If not for Nyquist he would be an Eclipse Award winner and, perhaps, the winter favorite for the Kentucky Derby. It's just that he can't beat his rival, finishing second behind him in four straight races. Trainer Keith Desormeaux reports that the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile runner-up had a small chip taken out of his left ankle after that race, and that he is behind in his training. But Desormeaux added that he is confident he will have his colt ready in time to make the Derby.

8. COLLECTED (c, City ZipHelena Bay {GB}, by Johannesburg) O-Speedway Stable LLC. B-Runnymede Farm Inc & Peter J. Callahan (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $170,000 2yo '15 OBSMAR; $150,000 yrl '14 KEESEP. Last Start: 1st, GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 9 Next Start: GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 15 As a stallion, City Zip was known for his speed and precocity and has excelled as a grass sire–Collected wouldn't appear to have the right pedigree to win the Kentucky Derby. Then again, he's more than defied conventional wisdom during his brief, but promising career. Bob Baffert started the colt out on the grass, getting a maiden win and then a second in the GIII Cecil B. DeMille S. But the real breakthrough didn't come until he put him on the dirt for the GIII Sham S. Running on the dirt and around two turns, he proved he belongs on the trail to the Kentucky Derby.

9. BRODY'S CAUSE (c, Giant's CausewaySweet Breanna, by Sahm) O-Albaugh Family Stable. B-Gabriel Duignan, William Arvin Jr & Petaluma (Ky). T-Dale Romans. Sales: $350,000 yrl '14 KEESEP. Last Start: 3rd, GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Oct. 31 Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Breeders' Futurity, KEE, Next Start: GII Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 12 After winning the GI Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland, he was one of the more highly regarded horses in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He far from disgraced himself in that race, finishing third behind Nyquist and Swipe, but it's fair to say he was simply outrun. He's in capable hands in Dale Romans and looks like the type that will only flourish as the distances get longer. With zero early speed, he is dependant on early pace conditions.

10. FLEXIBILITY (c, Bluegrass Cat–Santa Vindi, by Vindication) O-Klaravich Stables Inc. & William H. Lawrence. B-WinStar Farm LLC (NY). T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $185,000 2yo '15 FTFMAR; $80,000 yrl '14 FTNAUG. Last Start: 1st, GIII Jerome S., AQU, Jan. 2 Next Start: GIII Withers S., AQU, Jan. 30 (?) If you like Mohaymen, you can't dislike Flexibility. He ran second behind that colt in both the GII Nashua S. and GII Remsen S. in strong efforts and followed that with a win in the GIII Jerome S. at Aqueduct. The Jerome field wasn't particularly strong and, considering his setbacks when facing Mohaymen, he has to improve to move closer to the top of this list, but there's no reason he can't do so. Could give trainer Chad Brown his best shot at his first Kentucky Derby win.

11. LET'S MEET IN RIO (c, Flatter–Rio Carnival, by Storm Cat) O/B-Juddmonte Farms Inc. (KY). T-Bob Baffert Last Start: 2nd, GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 9 Next Start: GIII Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Feb. 6 (?) Though he couldn't beat stablemate Collected in the Sham, his stretch run to finish second was an eye-catching one as he closed strongly in the one-mile race to lose by just 1 1/4 lengths after being bumped. He finished off the board in his first two career starts–both sprints–but came to life when Baffert switched to route races. Plenty of upside with this one.

12. CONQUEST BIG E (c, Tapit–Seeinsbelieven, by Carson City) O-Conquest Stables, LLC. B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (Ky). T-Mark Casse. Sales: $700,000 yrl '14 KEESEP. Last Start: 1st, Allowance, CD, Nov. 28 Next Start: GII Holy Bull S, GP, Jan. 30 After finishing eighth in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he rebounded with a smart allowance win in late November at Churchill Downs as the heavy favorite. Has a clear affinity for wet tracks as both of his career wins have come over sloppy surfaces. By Tapit, the pedigree is certainly there.

Click sire's name for Progeny PPs; dam name for Stakes-Winning Pedigrees; race names for video replays.

ON THE BUBBLE:

Songbird (Medaglia d'Oro): She might be the best 3-year-old on planet, but connections are saying no to the Derby. Might they change their minds?

Toews On Ice (Archarcharch): Finished second behind stablemate Mor Spirit in Los Alamitos Futurity, but appears to be better suited to sprinting.

Sunny Ridge (Holy Bull): Finished good seconds in both the Champagne and Delta Jackpot. Would be the first Jersey-bred to win the Derby since Cavalcade in 1934.

Gift Box (Twirling Candy): From the formidable Chad Brown stable, was a creditable third in the Remsen, which looks like it's going to come up as a key race.

Cherry Wine (Paddy O'Prado): Romped by six in a Gulfstream allowance and has won his last two by a combined 15 1/4 lengths. Is ready for a test in stakes company.

Annual Report (Harlan's Holiday): A $600,000 Fasig-Tipton Florida 2-year-old, he disappointed in his lone route try, the GII Kentucky Jockey Club, but that race was on an off track.

Lani (Tapit): An intriguing invader from Japan, he will try G2 UAE Derby first before possible start in Derby. GII Peter Pan S. and GI Belmont S. are also options.

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