Justify's Derby, Beyond Extraordinary

What you saw Saturday at Churchill Downs was an undefeated, superstar horse easily winning the GI Kentucky Derby, and even those words, as hyperbolic as they may seem, don't begin to tell the story of what happened in a drenched Louisville, Kentucky.

Justify (Scat Daddy) got embroiled in one of the fastest paces in the history of the race, faced off against what may well have been one the deepest fields in a half-century, had to run over the slop, had to fend off the challenges of the 2-year-old champion and the GI Florida Derby winner and do all that with so little experience coming in that he had every right to be completely overwhelmed by the situation. Instead, nothing fazed him.

He should have lost. He should have backed up at the quarter pole, losing by 15 lengths or so, leaving his connections with the realization that they asked this horse to handle more than any horse could.

It didn't happen that way. He won by 2 1/2 lengths in one of those wins that, as good as it looked on paper, looks a whole lot better when you look at the bigger picture.

“You just saw a great performance,” trainer Bob Baffert told NBC after winning his fifth Kentucky Derby.

When it comes to riding in big races, jockey Mike Smith has no equal, but from the instant the starting gate doors opened he put himself into a position to be widely criticized and second guessed. The clear speed in the race was Promises Fulfilled (Shackleford), who was one of the longest shots in the field at 49-1. Predictably, Robby Albarado was on a mission and he rode his horse hard off the blocks and got to the front after a quarter-mile in an insane :22.24. Justify has speed, but he doesn't have to have the lead. For Smith, the right strategy seemed to be to sit, maybe three to four lengths off the lead, and then ease past Promises Fulfilled when he hit the brick wall that was waiting for him. Instead, Justify was breathing down his throat.

Perhaps Smith knew that his horse could handle a vicious pace and was content to let Justify do whatever he wanted. Whatever the case may be, the situation looked precarious when the dueling leaders got to the half-mile in :45.77, one of the fastest opening half-mile in Kentucky Derby history.

“I saw that '22 and change' and thought, 'Wow, that is really fast,'” Baffert said.

An exhausted Promises Fulfilled stopped entering the far turn, which was where Bolt d'Oro (Medaglia d'Oro) took a crack at Justify. He swatted him away, but now Good Magic (Curlin), who had been sitting a perfect trip behind the dueling leaders, took aim. This was not just any threat, but last year's 2-year-old champion and a GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner. He didn't let Justify get away and win by 10 lengths, but he never posed a serious threat.

So much for the curse of Apollo.

“It would take a horse like him to break that curse,” Smith said of the fact that, prior to Justify, no horse since Apollo in 1882 had won the Derby without having started at two. “He's just something. I can't describe how special this horse is. My vocabulary doesn't have the words for it. He's got that 'it' factor. He's so above average. He has unbelievable talent and then he's got a mind to go with it. He was loving this stuff. It's crazy. For such a young horse, he is so big and talented.”

You wouldn't think that Justify could get better. But he might. While it's much easier now than it was 30 years ago for a lightly raced horse with no juvenile experience to perform well in the Derby, seasoning is still a factor. There's every reason to believe that Justify is still figuring things out, still getting better. After he faced all of 14 opponents in his first three races and had a ridiculously easy trip in the GI Santa Anita Derby, they held his feet to the fire yesterday and he didn't blink. He's no longer just a talented horses, he's a talented hose who has learned what it is to be a race horse,

“Him and American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile) and Arrogate (Unbridled's Song), these horses are different,” Baffert said. “They are so great. It took a great horse to do what he did today.”

While Justify was the star Saturday, Baffert should take a well-deserve bow. Yes, the primary owners, WinStar Farm and China Horse Club, delivered a sensational colt on Baffert's doorsteps, but what happened Saturday wouldn't have happened if the trainer didn't make every right move. It's no easy to task to take a horse who debuted with a win on Feb. 18 in a seven-furlong maiden race and win the Kentucky Derby 76 days later. There's a reason why Baffert has won the Derby five times (one behind Ben Jones) and has every chance to get to seven, which would make him the winningest trainer in the history of the race.

We should all take a deep breath before we declare Justify the next Triple Crown winner, but it's awfully tempting to do so. Something can always go wrong, he could always beat himself, but he's far and away the best 3-year-old there is. Who could possibly defeat him?

The Triple Crown got off to an electrifying start Saturday and thanks to this son of Scat Daddy we should expect more of the same come the GI Preakness and GI Belmont. There's hype and there's reality. With Justify, it's the latter.