From a European perspective, the more important races of the four that make up Breeders' Cup Friday are the GI Juvenile Turf and the GI Juvenile Fillies Turf.
It's not surprising that visitors have a great record in these two races, but the interesting angle is that the home defence is arguably getting better. We have seen at Royal Ascot how dominant Wesley Ward-trained runners can be, and the elevation of the two races featured here to Grade I status may have inspired one or two more talented youngsters to have their attention focused away from dirt.
The colts' race became a Grade I in 2011. The first three renewals duly went to Europe via the Aidan O'Brien-trained pair Wrote (High Chaparral {Ire}) (2011) and George Vancouver (Henrythenavigator) (2012) and Godolphin's Outstrip (GB) (Exceed And Excel {Aus}) (2013). That made it five wins in the seven years since the Juvenile Turf was born, first as an ungraded stake (2007-2008) then as an erstwhile Grade II (2009-2010).
The superior class of European runners can be seen from the chart underneath, which summarises the performance of 102 finishers in the Juvenile Turf (one runner slipped up) since its inception, conditioned by the location of the trainer. (For these purposes, the U.S. category includes Canada). The taller blue bars to the right of the chart (and taller red bars to the left) show that runners from Europe have tended to produce the higher Racing Post Ratings in this event:
There were, however, underlying signs of US improvement. In 2012 and 2013, for instance, three Chad Brown-trained colts reached the placings behind solid overseas winners, running Racing Post Ratings (RPR) in the 112-114 range, which is good enough to win a Group 2 in Europe.
Meanwhile, the domestic distaffers were already doing their bit. Before the Juvenile Fillies Turf made its Grade I debut in 2012, the prize had remained at home every year since inception in 2008. The best of this quartet was the Dale Romans-trained Tapitsfly (Tapit) (2009), who went on to win two Grade Is as a 5-year-old for owner-breeder Frank Jones.
Then, last year, both the Juvenile Turf and the Juvenile Fillies Turf fell to US-trained runners for the first time since their Grade I era began (US-trained runners also won both races at Grade II level in 2010). And no ordinary horses either: the still-unbeaten Lady Eli (Divine Park) ran away with the female version, looking a match for any of her sex on the planet. The colt Hootenanny (Quality Road), earlier a commanding victor of the Listed Windsor Castle S. at Royal Ascot for Ward, somehow stretched his speed to a mile. Moreover, he led a sweep of the placings for America, followed home by Luck Of The Kitten (Kitten's Joy) and Daddy D T (Scat Daddy).
The European horses who travel to Keeneland in the division this time will nevertheless take plenty of beating. The four challengers for the Juvenile Turf–Hit It A Bomb (War Front), Cymric (Kitten's Joy), Shogun (Ire) (Fastnet Rock {Aus}) and Birchwood (Ire) (Dark Angel {Ire})–make up a formidable team. And, while the Juvenile Fillies Turf includes only a trio of raiders, Alice Springs (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), Illuminate (Ire) (Zoffany {Ire}) and Nemoralia (More Than Ready) also constitute a very solid offensive.
Hit It A Bomb will be a strong bet-against for some U.S. handicappers. Winner of only a maiden at The Curragh (grass) and a listed race at Dundalk (Polytrack), he is accompanied by much hype, which is often a warning sign. The way horses are most commonly rated in Europe, however, he scores heavily in terms of so-called collateral form and also looks the part.
That's not the case for Cymric, who earned an RPR only a length short of the par to win the Juvenile Turf when nipped in the GI Grand Criterium at Longchamp on Arc day. Fourth-placed Johannes Vermeer (Galileo {Ire}), a stablemate to both Hit It A Bomb and Shogun, has flattered the contest with a good second in the G1 Racing Post Trophy. Furthermore, Cymric lost ground and should probably have won; he appears right where John Gosden wants him for this, in an attempt to provide his trainer with a third win–though first at Grade I level–after Donativum (Cadeaux Genereux {GB}) (2008) and Pounced (Rahy) (2009).
Cymric's owner, Godolphin, also sends Birchwood, trained in the North of England by Richard Fahey. A Group 2 winner in the summer, he has since had his limitations exposed, though he did run a sound race when third to wonder horse Air Force Blue (War Front) in the G1 Goffs Vincent O'Brien National S. at The Curragh.
O'Brien's Shogun was four places and a length and a half behind Cymric at Longchamp, but he was noted running on well and is better drawn here, breaking from stall four rather than his rival's 13. Note that Hit It A Bomb is even more poorly housed in 14, another reason to doubt the latter.
A summary of results in both juvenile events conditioned by the draw is expressed by the chart. The effective metric %RB is 'percentage of rivals beaten,' which uses much more information that merely tallying wins and places from each stall.
The effect is the same seen in many events round a turn in turf racing globally, irrespective of the location of the track. Horses breaking from inside stalls have to negotiate more traffic and a stall number very low can be as bad as the far outside. But the realized effect of the draw depends to a large extent on the pace scenario.
On balance, Cymric looks the best proposition of the Euros in the Juvenile Turf, though the GIII Bourbon S. one-two Airoforce (Colonel John) and Camelot Kitten (Kitten's Joy) are on top of my ticket, with Cymric and Shogun underneath.
O'Brien sends Alice Springs for the Juvenile Fillies, but don't be deceived by her romp last time at Newmarket, which came against lesser rivals in a richly endowed contest for sales graduates. Illuminate, trained by Richard Hannon Jr, is the better filly on form, judged by her close second to my favorite juvenile Lumiere (Ire) (Shamardal) in the GI Cheveley Park S. That was her first race for over two months and it figures not to be lost on her. If she can handle two more furlongs here, she deserves to be the top choice.
Nemoralia, who is a useful foil for the more credentialed European-trained challengers, has already run second to Nickname (Scat Daddy) in the GI Frizette S. and could go well for trainer Jeremy Noseda, who saddled Wilko (Awesome Again) to win the Juvenile on dirt at Lone Star Park in 2004.
It will be fascinating to see the intercontinental clash that the Juvenile Fillies serves up here. Home runners Catch A Glimpse (City Zip) and Harmonize (Scat Daddy) are definitely good fillies for trainers Mark Casse and Bill Mott, respectively.
Not a subscriber? Click here to sign up for the daily PDF or alerts.
