IMPROBABLE (c, City Zip—Rare Event, by A.P. Indy)
‘TDN Rising Star’. O-WinStar Farm LLC, China Horse Club International Ltd. & Starlight Racing. B-St. George Farm LLC & G. Watts Humphrey Jr. (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $110,000 Wlg ’16 KEENOV; $200,000 Ylg ’17 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 3-3-0-0, $269,520.
Jan. 8 TDN Top 12 Rank: 3
Last Start: 1st, GI Los Alamitos Cash Call Futurity, LRC, Dec. 8
Accomplishments Include: 1st, Street Sense S., CD, Nov. 2;
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. Caulfield on Improbable. KY Derby Points: 10.
Improbable, like stablemate Game Winner, is on Baffert’s two-prep path to the Derby, and his most logical next-race landing spot is the GII Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Mar. 16. When XBTV asked last week about this $200,000 KEESEP City Zip colt’s top traits as a Derby candidate, Baffert replied, “His athleticism. He’s light on his feet.” But Baffert also admitted that he initially wondered if Improbable was bred to be a Classics contender because “most of the City Zips are going to be turf sprinters or whatever.” So far, this has not been the case with Improbable, who sports a 7 1/4-length Breeders’ Cup undercard romp in the Street Sense S. and a two-turn crushing of five overmatched rivals in the GI Los Alamitos Futurity. “This guy, I think he’s got the right body that can carry him,” Baffert said. But despite two daylight-margin stakes wins, an open question is how Improbable will handle deep-stretch adversity, because he has yet to have to fight off any sort of late-race challenge beyond the maiden ranks.