Ground Control

It was quite an amazing Classic weekend: all three favorites–two at odds-on–placed but did not win, on soft ground at the Curragh Saturday and Sunday (softer on Saturday), and on a muddy dirt track at Pimlico Saturday afternoon. Rain arrived everywhere, and proven soft-ground or off-track performers went three-for-three.

First up was the G1 Irish 2000 Guineas at the Curragh Saturday afternoon. Sheikh Hamdan's Awtaad, by Cape Cross, also the sire of last year's G1 Epsom Derby winner Golden Horn, had won the seven-furlong Listed Tetrarch S. on soft ground earlier this month, and went off a well-backed third favorite behind G1 English 2000 Guineas winner Galileo Gold (Paco Boy) and the disappointing favorite that day, last year's champion European 2-year-old Air Force Blue (War Front). Awtaad was always traveling ominously well and ran on strongly to beat Galileo Gold by 2 1/2 lengths, with Air Force Blue once again out with the washing. Galileo Gold definitely didn't have a clear run up the inside rail, and could have finished closer but wouldn't have beaten the winner on Saturday. How rain-affected was the result? Awtaad's time was 1:45.26, which is very slow, though the ground was sufficiently soft that even such a slow time merited a Racing Post Rating (RPR) of 123–the same as Galileo Gold's RPR when winning in Newmarket. Will Awtaad be as effective on good ground, as if so, he becomes even a more attractive sire prospect, presumably for Sheikh Hamdan's Derrinstown Stud in Ireland?

As things stand now, the winners of all three major European 2000 Guineas races are pointing for the June 14 G1 St James's Palace S. opening day at Royal Ascot: Awtaad (RPR 123, soft ground); Galileo Gold (RPR 123); and impressive G1 Poule d'Essai des Poulains–French 2000 Guineas winner The Gurkha (Galileo), who ran RPR 122 when skunking his rivals in Deauville. The Gurkha had been so impressive in France that 'the lads' must have been tempted to send him for the G1 Epsom Derby (still, really, a race without a favorite), but as with Galileo Gold (though thankfully without the C's and T's) and Awtaad, the Guineas winners will stick to a mile at least for the St James's Palace. You can see why I think that race should be renamed the European 2000 Guineas and get a major sponsor for zillions, but I guess that's not on the cards.

The middle leg of last weekend's three big Classics–and, of course, the middle leg of the U.S. Triple Crown–was the GI Preakness S. at a muddy Pimlico. Second favorite Exaggerator (Curlin) capitalized on Nyquist's getting caught up in a speed duel; Exaggerator, as rider Kent Desormeaux said afterwards in several different ways, had a perfect trip, on ground over which he was already proven. He had won big in the GI Santa Anita Derby in similar conditions and was the only horse to give Nyquist a race in the GI Kentucky Derby, so if the favorite didn't fire for whatever reason, Exaggerator loomed large. As many times as Big Chief Racing and trainer Keith Desormeaux had been beaten by Nyquist–eight times in all, six of them seconds, between Swipe last year and Exaggerator–they were very deserving winners.

Nonetheless, as things turned out, the Nyquist team did make the wrong decision about tactics by deciding to 'send' him. Paul Reddam is a terrific owner–I've voted for him for the Eclipse Award a couple of times and hope to be able to do so again this year–and Paul was gracious enough to authorize me to print the following comment from him:

“Nyquist's human connections got him beat and we feel sorry for the horse. Our group is truly a team so we win and lose as a team. The instructions given to Mario were to 'win the first turn' because I think the feeling was that the other speed wouldn't want to go with him because that would be suicide for them. The team felt that the only way the horse would lose would be to get locked in, hence there was over-confidence. Once he was between two other speeds, Mario tried but couldn't switch him off. So in the end we committed suicide going the fastest quarter in Preakness history on a track that was gooey and hence three seconds slow”.

In fact, the Equibase chart shows Nyquist in front after a first half in :46.56 seconds; at that point Exaggerator was 6 1/2 lengths back, which means it still took him, by my calculations, about 1:10.55 to run the last 5 1/2 furlongs. That's a six-furlong time on a fast track, which suggests Paul is maybe even conservative when he says the track was three seconds slow; it might have been even slower than that. Nonetheless, Exaggerator joins Nyquist at the top table as the two best American 3-year-olds of 2016. 'TDN Rising Stars' Cherry Wine, from the first crop by Paddy O'Prado; and Stradivari (Medaglia d'Oro), running fourth in only his fourth lifetime start; and the Japanese runner, Lani (Tapit), in fifth, all enhanced their credentials with credible races as well. Cherry Wine's second moved Spendthrift's Paddy O'Prado into fourth on the TDN 2016 YTD North American Second-Crop Sire List (click here), behind Uncle Mo, Twirling Candy, and barn-mate Archarcharch.

Finally, the G1 Irish 1000 Guineas on Saturday. Minding (Galileo) had run a monster RPR 119 when winning the G1 Fillies Mile at Newmarket last October, and improved to RPR 121 when leading home a Coolmore 1-2-3 in the G1 English 1000 Guineas. The filly Ballydoyle (also by Galileo) was the intended Ballydoyle first string last weekend, but came up with a bad blood profile, so they sent in Minding as a prep for her impending run in the G1 Epsom Oaks. She banged her head coming out of the stalls and ended up getting beaten by that margin, the pair 10 lengths clear of Now Or Never (Bushranger) in third, by Jet Setting (Fast Company), who had famously been bought, as a maiden, for 12,000gns at the Tattersalls Horses in Training Sale last October out of the Richard Hannon yard. She won her first two for her new connections, trained by the young Irish handler Adrian Paul Keatley, including a win over Now or Never, in the seven-furlong G3 Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial in heavy ground in April. She was supplemented, but finished ninth behind Minding on ground plainly too firm for her in Newmarket, but was again supplemented for the Curragh, and this time she got her ground. The fillies' race Sunday went three seconds faster than the colts' race on Saturday, which could mean that the fillies are better than the colts–and they might be, considering the first two pulled 10 lengths clear of the third. However, the times on Sunday, though still slow (the 1000 Guineas went in 1:42.46), did seem to be about three seconds faster than on Saturday.

The European Classics and other racing last weekend had a big impact in particular on the 2016 European third-crop sire list. Fast Company is a son of Danehill Dancer who won the G3 Acomb S. at seven furlongs as a 2-year-old for trainer Brian Meehan, then was sold to Godolphin, gave New Approach a scare in the 2007 G1 Dewhurst S., but never ran again. He stood at Ireland's Rathasker Stud until this year, when he was transferred to Overbury Stud in England. Not only did he have G1 Irish 1000 Guineas winner Jet Setting last weekend, he also had the winner of the G2 Lanwades S. at the Curragh on Saturday in Godolphin's Devonshire, from his first crop, who had actually been third in the G1 Irish 1000 last year. Fast Company now advances to #6 on the YTD 2016 European third-crop sire list (click here–EU sires, EU/NA earnings), or #7 on the same list, but including worldwide earnings from Northern Hemisphere-sired crops (click here)–so including, for example, earnings in Dubai.

Fast Company was just one of four European third-crop sires with Classic wins or placings from their second crops of 3-year-olds last weekend. Galileo Gold's second in the G1 Irish 2000 Guineas helps sustain Highclere Stud's Paco Boy's position as #2 on the European third-crop list (NA/EU earnings), though he is third by worldwide earnings, as Whitsbury Manor's Showcasing (Green Desert), who is the group leader with four graded/group SW so far this year, edges past Paco Boy (by Desert Style, by Green Desert) for second by worldwide earnings. Tally Ho Stud's Zebedee (by Invincible Spirit, by Green Desert) had the second in Sunday's G2 Italian Derby and now moves into fourth among EU third-crop sires by 2016 earnings (NA/EU), though he is fifth by worldwide earnings.

'The Daddy' among European third-crop sires, though, is Ballylinch Stud's Lope De Vega, a son of Shamardal who emulated his sire by winning the G1 Poule D'Essai des Poulains and G1 Prix du Jockey-Club–French Derby (2100m) double in 2010, and was leading European freshman sire in 2014. Lope De Vega has had seven individual black-type horses since May 14, including: G1 winners Belardo and Jemayel; and, last weekend, G1 Irish 2000 Guineas third Blue De Vega, plus the one-two in a 10-furlong Listed Race at Newmarket, the Fairway S., courtesy of 3-year-olds Steel of Madrid and Linguistic. Lope De Vega now has five black-type winners (three group winners, two Group 1 winners) and 13 black-type horses (eight group, four Group 1) this year, and leads European third-crop sires both by NA/EU earnings ($1.2-million) and by worldwide earnings ($1.9-million), which are boosted by the dual Dubai Group 2-winning 4-year-old filly Very Special.

ROYAL ASCOT 2-YEAR-OLDS: The weekend before last Al Shaqab's Mehmas, a 170,000-gns purchase by Peter and Ross Doyle at Tattersalls' Craven 2-Year-Old Sale six weeks ago, went 2-for-2 in a hot Newbury 6-furlong conditions race and immediately became one of the favorites for the G2 Coventry S. (six furlongs, usually the hottest 2-year-old race of the week) at Royal Ascot. Last Saturday, we saw what looked to us like three more serious Ascot candidates. At York, a colt named Broken Stones, from the first crop by Requinto–himself a very fast son of Dansili out of the rocket Damson–won a 6-furlong conditions race impressively himself; he came out of the same Tattersalls' Craven Sale six weeks ago, for 200,000gns, to Stephen Hillen and trainer Kevin Ryan. Godolphin won a 6-furlong race at Goodwood with a Shamardal filly named Romantic View who will be heading for the six-furlong (fillies) G3 Albany S.; and the Scat Daddy colt Caravaggio scored an ultimately impressive win for the Coolmore team on what looked like unsuitably (for him) soft ground in the 5-furlong Marble Hill S. (Listed) at the Curragh. They might send him for the Coventry but he also looked like he could be a big danger to all in the 5-furlong G2 Norfolk. Of course, then there's the Wesley Ward contingent, which interestingly is likely to include Star Empire, a 2-year-old colt by first-crop reverse shuttler Foxwedge, a first-class Australian sprinter by Fastnet Rock who stands 'up north' at Whitsbury Manor Stud in England. As detailed in last Friday's TDN (click here), the Bateman family, which raced Foxwedge, sent Ward three 2-year-olds from his first Northern crop in hopes one would advertise the stallion, and after a 6 1/2-length win at five furlongs at Belmont last Thursday, Star Empire could be, as hoped, on his way to Ascot. Bill Oppenheim may be contacted at [email protected] (please cc TDN management at [email protected]). Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/billoppenheim.