“Five to 10 Percent” Chance Chrome Back Next Year

The process hasn't even started yet, but the syndicate that owns California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit) will at some point need to get out a calculator and try to figure out if the horse can make more money in 2017 racing than breeding. With so many millions available in so many big races and with California Chrome looking nearly invincible at this point in his career, it very well could make economic sense to race him throughout 2017, a possibility his owners are considering.

“I've been telling people that there's probably a five to 10 percent chance that he will race next year,” said Duncan Taylor, the President and CEO of Taylor Made Farm, where California Chrome will eventually stand at stud. “Certain conditions would have to be met. The horse would have to X-ray perfectly, he would have to still be thriving and act like he wants to run. If that were the case and he was running like he is now there would be a possibility that he would run next year. That is only my opinion. We have not had any long discussions with the syndicate or with (co-owner) Perry (Martin).”

After California Chrome won two-thirds of the Triple Crown in 2014, his 4-year-old season was limited. He made just two starts, finishing second in GII San Antonio and also in the GI Dubai World Cup. While the then- 4-year-old was at Arlington preparing for the GI Arlington Million, a race in which he ultimately would not run, the Taylor Made team met with his owners and examined the horse and made and agreement to buy in and eventually stand him at stud.

“The vet we sent to Arlington said he had never seen a horse with a cleaner set of X-rays,” Taylor said. “That's why we decided we might as well give it a shot.”

Because California Chrome failed to win as a 4-year-old, it made perfect sense to bring him back this year to race at 5.

“That's why we kept him running,” Taylor said. “If we would have run him and he had not done any good, he would been one of those Kentucky Derby winners that had lost some luster, but he would still be a $15,000, $20,000 stallion. If we get 15, 20 and I get 100 live foals that's $2 million. But if we won just the one race in Dubai,that's $6 million before you pay the jockey and trainer.”

That math has certainly changed. No matter what California Chrome does from here he will stand for well more than $20,000. Taylor declined to speculate what the stud fee might be, but odds are, it would have to be high in order for it to make economic sense to retire the horse.

California Chrome has already made $6.3 million this year and that number could be dwarfed by what he may earn over the next six months. His schedule calls for him to run in the $1 million GI Pacific Classic, the $300,000 GI Awesome Again, the $5 million GI Pacific Classic and the $12 million Pegasus World Cup before being retired. Should he run the table, he will earn nearly $12 million more this year or $18 million over the course of a calendar year, likely more than he could make as a stallion.

“The decision will be a democratic process, but when it comes down to it, Perry will have a large say because he owns the majority of the horse,” Taylor said.

Taylor knows that some will be hesitant to breed to a horse by Lucky Pulpit out of a dam (Love the Chase), whose only win came in a $8,000 maiden claimer at Golden Gate Fields. He hopes that people will look deeper into California Chrome's pedigree and see that there is much more there than meets the eye on the surface.

“The dam is line bred to Numbered Account 3 x 3,” he noted. “People remember she was a champion. But they may not remember what a great filly she was. With this horse, people need to peel back the onion and if they do they'll like what they see. California Chrome reminds me of Seattle Slew. (Slew's sire) Bold Reasoning was not a household name and (his dam) My Charmer…look at her pedigree and she was line-bred 4 x 4 to a mare called Baby League and Baby League is the fourth dam of Numbered Account.”

The California Chrome team is more focused on the horse's short-term future rather than his long-term one, as his next start could be the toughest of his career. He is slated to meet the great mare Beholder (Henny Hughes) in the Pacific Classic, a race she won last year. She had won eight straight and 12 of her last 13. Once again, California Chrome will be running for the V Foundation as a portion of his earnings will go toward the noted charity working to wipe out cancer.

“I think it's going to be a great race,” Taylor said. “Beholder is a great name for her. She is something to behold. She's just a big., beautiful, very talented horse. It's a colt versus a filly and the fans will love that. Dortmund (Big Brown) is in there, too. It's like the Breeders' Cup Classic two months before the Breeders' Cup Classic.”