Curlin Investment Paying Dividends

Six million, two hundred and eighteen thousand and a hundred and sixty dollars sounds like an awful lot of money to pay for a 20% share in an 11-year-old horse. However, Hill 'n' Dale did exactly that in May last year and the North Yarnalton Pike farm surely can't have had a single regret in the subsequent 14 months or so, because the horse in question was Curlin.

During that comparatively short time, the two-time Horse of the Year has been represented by Curalina (GI Acorn S., GI CCA Oaks, GI La Troienne S. and GIII Shuvee H.), Exaggerator (GII Saratoga Special, GIII Delta Downs Jackpot S., GI Santa Anita Derby, GI Preakness S. and GI Haskell Invitational S.), Keen Ice (GI Travers S.), Off The Tracks (GIII Schuylerville S. and GI Mother Goose S.), Stellar Wind (GII Summertime Oaks, GIII Torrey Pines S. and GI Clement L. Hirsch S.) and Terra Promessa (GIII Honeybee S. and GIII Fantasy S.).

In other words, Curlin's career has undergone a wonderful turnaround since I described him as a “nearly” stallion as recently as January 2015. That assessment was based on the fact that, at that stage, Curlin had managed to sire just two graded stakes winners from the 209 named foals in his first two crops. I was quick to point out, though, that there was good reason for optimism. For a start, one of those graded winners was Palace Malice, hero of the GI Belmont S. and GI Metropolitan H. Then there was the fact that Curlin's 2012 crop contained an encouraging number of qualifiers for the Experimental Free H., as well as nominees for the 2015 Triple Crown races. And Curlin had also been peppering the graded stakes target, with an impressive number of horses placing at that level.

“It wouldn't surprise me,” I wrote, “were he to make a breakthrough in 2015” and that is exactly what he did.

Unfortunately, I wasn't the only one who had been forced to wonder whether Curlin the stallion was ever going to prove as outstanding as Curlin the racehorse–the racehorse who won the Preakness in between a third in the Kentucky Derby and a second in the Belmont. Of course he also went on to take a further six Grade I victories, including the Breeders' Cup Classic and the Dubai World Cup, in addition to running respectably when second in the Man o'War S. on his only appearance on turf.

Having started out at $75,000 in 2009, his fee was soon reduced to $40,000 and by his fifth and sixth seasons it was down to $25,000. The first reduction didn't help stimulate demand. The Jockey Club credits him with 54 mares (for 41 foals) in his fifth season, which means he is going to be short of juvenile representatives this year.

Then along came Palace Malice in 2013 and Curlin benefited to the extent of 152 mares in 2014, which suggests that plenty of breeders are poised to reap handsome rewards on their $25,000 investments. We have already seen Curlin colts sell for $475,000 and $195,000 at Fasig-Tipton's Kentucky July Sale and there are a dozen yearlings in next week's Saratoga catalogue.

The revival looks set to continue, as Curlin covered 162 mares in 2015 at a fee of $35,000 and he surely covered plenty of high-class mares in his first season at Hill 'n' Dale, with his fee raised to $100,000. For the record, he now has 10 graded winners, including six Grade I winners which divide evenly between the sexes.

Two of those Grade I winners were on display over the weekend, with Stellar Wind taking full advantage of the two pounds she received from Beholder in the GI Clement L. Hirsch S. at Del Mar, while Exaggerator reinforced his championship claims with his third Grade I victory of the year in the GI Haskell Invitational. One difference between these two admirable performers is that Stellar Wind's graded successes have all been gained on fast tracks, whereas Exaggerator owes several of his best victories to sloppy or muddy tracks. However, his efforts on fast tracks include his fine second in the Kentucky Derby and his win in the GII Saratoga Special, so he appears to be as versatile as his sire. Remember Curlin's Breeders' Cup Classic victory also came over a sloppy Monmouth track, even though most of his wins were gained under fast conditions.

Exaggerator already has 13 starts under his belt, having first seen action as early as June 5 last year, when he showed promise behind a colt called Nyquist. He has clearly inherited an ample measure of Curlin's toughness, rather than the fragility which restricted the career of his broodmare sire Vindication to only four starts.

Lady Luck certainly didn't smile on Vindication after he had sealed the 2-year-old championship with his smooth success in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile. An injury to his left front suspensory meant that Vindication was off the Kentucky Derby trail as early as February and the injury continued to plague him. Retired to Hill 'n' Dale at the end of the year, he started out at a fee of $50,000 and was in such demand that his fee quickly climbed to $60,000.

His popularity reflected the fact that he was a champion son of the deceased Seattle Slew. Curlin owes quite a lot of his success as a stallion to Seattle Slew line mares. To be precise, it has supplied half of his Grade I winners, the others being Stellar Wind (out of a mare by Seattle Slew's grandson Malibu Moon) and Off The Tracks (out of a mare by grandson Boston Harbor). For good measure, the Grade II winner Moulin de Mougin has a dam by Seattle Slew's son Avenue of Flags.

Vindication was only eight years old when colic claimed him in July 2008. By then he had completed five seasons, which yielded 487 foals. Unfortunately he failed to sire a Grade I winner, but he left a couple of stallion sons in Vocalised, an Irish-based Group 3 winner whose daughter Steip Amach was Group 1-placed two days ago, and the $4.6-million Maimonides, whose promising career ended after only two starts.

Vindication looks as though he is going to fare better as a broodmare sire (as high-priced but disappointing stallions often do). His daughters already have five graded winners to their credit, with the Malibu S. winner Shakin It Up also scoring at Grade I level. This year's GII Jerome H. winner Flexibility is another with a dam by Vindication.

Exaggerator's dam Dawn Raid did her winning as a 2-year-old on all-weather at Woodbine, once covering 5 ½ furlongs in 1:03.37. Dawn Raid's half-sister Embur's Song did even better at Woodbine, collecting a pair of Grade IIIs, as well as another at Keeneland. Third dam Vevila was a three-parts-sister by The Minstrel to Northern Answer's champion Canadian sprinter Eternal Search. As you have probably guessed, this was originally a Windfields family.