By Bill Finley
It happened again Saturday at Oaklawn in the GII Rebel as the $900,000 stakes was won by the most expensive yearling in the race and, arguably, the best-bred colt in the field. Rebel winner Cupid (Tapit) cost $900,000 at Keeneland September, where he was bought by the Coolmore team. Buy an expensive horse and you're guaranteed nothing. At least that always seemed to be the case. Just not lately.
Cinderella won't be in attendance at Churchill Downs on May 7.
Cupid will be included in the next edition of the TDN Top Derby poll, which will make him the second Tapit on the list. The current list also includes three sons of Bernardini and two offspring of Uncle Mo. There's also a Giant's Causeway. Even the homebred Danzing Candy (Twirling Candy), bred off a $12,500 fee, is by a relatively young sire producing his fair share of quality horses and top sales results, as evidenced at
OBS March, and it would be a stretch to call him an overachiever.
Danzing Candy never went through the sales ring, but the major Derby contenders that did all cost a significant sum. Mohaymen (Tapit) leads the list at $2.2 million. Right behind him are Cupid and Zulu (Bernardini) at $900,000 each. Mor Spirit (Eskendereya) sold for $650,000 as a 2-year-old. Greenpointcrusader (Bernardini) is a $575,000 yearling. Nyquist (Uncle Mo), who sold for $400,000 as a 2-year-old and for $230,000 as a yearling, wasn't cheap either. The most inexpensive horse on the Top 12 list sold at auction is Exaggerator (Curlin), a $110,000 yearling. This year, that's looking like a bargain.
The list of owners who appear headed to the Kentucky Derby is also dominated by the biggest and wealthiest names in the sport. Shadwell has two serious Derby horses in Mohaymen and Shagaf (Bernardini). Paul Reddam owns Nyquist. Coolmore will have two horses on the next list in Cupid and Zulu (Bernardini), which they own in partnership with Stonestreet Stables. Mo Tom (Uncle Mo) is owned by GMB Racing, the stable name for Gayle and Tom Benson. The Bensons own the New Orleans Saints.
It wasn't that long ago that the GI Kentucky Derby kept producing storylines fit for a Disney movie. There was California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit), whose dam, Love the Chase, accomplished nothing more on the racetrack than winning an $8,000 maiden claimer. The story of Mine That Bird (Birdstone) is so improbable it still doesn't seem like it could possibly be true. Funny Cide (Distorted Humor) brought together a bunch of high school buddies who drove around in a school bus.
Is what is happening simply some sort of coincidence, the Gods of the Kentucky Derby deciding this year to reward those who have poured tens or even hundreds of millions into the sport and believe in excellence when breeding or buying a horse? Perhaps. Then again, perhaps not.
There has been a major shift over the last few years when it comes to which sires are being bred to the most mares and, therefore, dominating the foal crop. The high-end sires have never been more popular. Everyone, it seems, wants to breed to them, not flinching one bit at their six-figure stud fees. The middle and lower-end sires are struggling, getting fewer and fewer mares. And the ones they are getting tend to be mares not good enough to be bred to elite stallions.
“There has been a flattening of the top sires,” said TDN columnist Bill Oppenheim. “They used to have Apex Ratings of four and now they are threes. What we're seeing is that the top sires all have 100 foals per crop and they are running against each other all the time. The band is reduced. That coupled with a 40% drop in the foal crop has contributed to this.”
When the $100,000 stallion gets bred to 150 mares and the $5,000 stallion is bred to 20, what are the chances that the $5,000 stallion turns out a Kentucky Derby contender? Obviously, not very good. When the foal crop is half the size of what it was 25 years ago and many of the lower echelon stallions and mares have been weeded out, how hard is it for a poorly bred horse to prosper? Very hard.
Breed a good mare to a top stallion or spend $500,000 plus on a yearling or 2-year-old and your chances of having a quality horse have never been better. Pay $2.2 million for Mohaymen and you might just get a Kentucky Derby winner and a horse who will be worth many, many times that as a stallion. Buy a horse for $12,500 or breed your modest mare to a modest stallion and you're probably punching your ticket to Finger Lakes.
Welcome to the new normal.
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