Keeneland September Book 1 Preview

In 2014, Keeneland carded Book 1 over four days for the final time, cataloging 762 yearlings, 190+ a day. Last year, Book 1 shrunk to three days for the first time, when 724 yearlings were catalogued over the three days, 240+ a day. Book 1 is again three days this year (Monday, September 12 to Wednesday, September 14), but it has shrunk further, to 607 yearlings catalogued, 200+ a day. So the number of days over which Book 1 is catalogued has dropped 25%, from four to three, and the number of yearlings catalogued has dropped 20%, from 762 to 607, in two years. In comparison to last year there are 16% fewer yearlings catalogued over the three days of Book 1.

In the four-day Book 1 two years ago, 473 yearlings (62.1% of those catalogued) sold for $142,153,000, averaging $300,535. In the three-day Book 1 last year, 443 yearlings (61.2% of those catalogued) sold for $134,261,000, and averaged $303,072; so last year, in comparison to 2014, 6% fewer yearlings sold for 5.5% less money, and the average went up by 1%. So for two years running, Book 1 has averaged right around $300,000.

Saratoga had a 21% bigger catalogue yet the gross was down $1-million and the average was off by 9%. Arqana's two best days (Sunday-Monday) saw a 6% improvement in the clearance rate from the catalogue, yet the gross was down by 5% and the average down 14%. With the number of yearlings catalogued for September Book 1 down 16% we would have to be in a lot stronger bull market than we are for September Book 1 this year to gross anything like $134-million. If 60% of the 607 yearlings catalogued sell, even if they averaged $300,000 a gross of $112-million would be more what we would expect, and if there was a 9% drop in average, as at Saratoga, we could be reading about a 25% decline in the Book 1 gross, to $100-million.

Now you're waiting to hear the cheery news, aren't you? Well, I have some; really, two observations about how some of the numbers line up. The first bit of good news is that nearly a quarter of the yearlings catalogued in Book 1 are by probably four of the hottest five sires in America. Gainesway's Tapit is the leading sire of Book 1 yearlings, with 45 catalogued; Darley's Medaglia d'Oro is second, with 40; Coolmore Ashford's deceased Scat Daddy has 35 catalogued, and Claiborne's War Front has 31 in Book 1. Total: 151 yearlings. Tapit, Medaglia d'Oro, and War Front are the three sires to have averaged over $500,000 at the yearling sales so far, and even if they aren't going to keep up those averages, if you could name the five North American sires you'd like to have the biggest representation at a sale, those would be four of them (see Uncle Mo, below).

Six other sires have over 20 yearlings catalogued in Book 1; among them these total another 149 yearlings, which means exactly 300 of the 607 yearlings in Book 1–just a shade under half–are by ten sires. Besides the four with 30+, the other six are: WinStar's Speightstown (28); Spendthrift's Malibu Moon (27); Darley's Bernardini (26); Ramsey Farm's Kitten's Joy (23); and WinStar's Pioneerof the Nile (23) and Distorted Humor (22). So those are some pretty strong names making up right at half the catalogue. That will help the Book 1 gross.

Ashford's Uncle Mo, who stood for $27,500 in 2014, has 13 yearlings catalogued in Book 1, and this is indicative of the other bit of good news: that there is a whole lot of the sale left after Book 1. Uncle Mo, for example, has 46 yearlings catalogued in Books 2-6, and there are more than a dozen sires with 50 or more catalogued each, after Book 1. While the number of yearlings catalogued for Book 1 has dropped by 16% from last year (117 yearlings), the number catalogued in Books 2-6 has risen by 12%, which is 432 yearlings (overall, the catalogue is up by 315 yearlings, or 7.5%). And here's another interesting speculative projection: in 2014, the clearance rate from the catalogues after Book 1 was 68.6%; last year it was 66.9%. Even if it slips another almost 2%, say to 65%–and even if the average drops say 9%–this year's Book 2-6 gross could just about match last year's Book 2-6 total (one less day) of $147.2-million. If something like that proved to be the case, we would be projecting around a $30-million drop in revenues at Keeneland September, from the $280-million range to around $250-million–and virtually all of that drop could come in Book 1.

Only 69 stallions have sired the 607 yearlings catalogued in Book 1 (click here to see the complete alphabetical list of Keeneland September Book 1 sires), and of the top 10 sires represented which were listed above, only one–Pioneerof the Nile (first foals 2011, so 5-year-olds of 2016)–had his first foals later than 2009. There will be hundreds by first-year sires in the 'back books', but not so many over the first three days. In fact, only three first-year sires have more than five yearlings catalogued during the first three days: Claiborne's Orb (11); Darley's Animal Kingdom; and Coolmore Ashford's Declaration of War (9 each). Eight first-year sires have 40 yearlings total catalogued in Book 1, just over 6% of the total.

NEXT WEEK: The 241 sires represented throughout the whole Keeneland September sale. But before Lexington, can I put in a good word for the BBAG (German) Yearling Sale, which will be held in Baden-Baden on Sept. 2, the Friday before Labor Day in the U.S. I've been to this sale the last three or four years. It's always a good sale and a fun weekend, with now two Breeders' Cup Win-and-You're-In Challenge races scheduled for Sunday, Sept. 4, but the sale is of particular interest this year because the first yearlings will be offered by no fewer than four young sires who all went to stud in Germany in 2014. Gestut Fahrhof debuts the first yearlings by Maxios, a Group 1 winner by Monsun from a top Niarchos family; and Pastorius, a son of Soldier Hollow who beat Novellist twice from two meetings at three, the first of which was in the G1 German Derby. Gestut Rottgen stands G1 (new) French Derby winner Reliable Man (click here for a feature on Reliable Man); and Gestut Karlshof stood Dabirsim, the unbeaten champion 2-year-old in France in 2011 from Hat Trick's first crop, though he has since returned to stand in France. There are 45 yearlings catalogued by these four young prospects, including 21 by Maxios, who can lay claim to being the first commercial stallion ever really being developed in Germany, with broad support in a syndication including several of Germany's leading breeders. It's a very exciting time for a country which has been punching way above its numbers just about since records began. Maybe see you there.